NFL Preview - Atlanta (8-4) At New Orleans (6-6)
POSTED: 3:50 pm EST December 4,
2008
By Scott Garbarini, Associate NFL Editor -- (Sports Network) - The New Orleans Saints will find themselves playing the unwanted role of spoiler when the high-flying Atlanta Falcons swoop into the Superdome this Sunday for a matchup that could go a long way towards realizing the up-and-coming team's playoff aspirations. New Orleans' postseason dreams have all but vanished following last weekend's hard-fought 23-20 loss to fellow NFC South member Tampa Bay. Now two games behind the Falcons and Dallas for the conference's second Wild Card spot with four to play, pride and the opportunity to avenge a 34-20 defeat to Atlanta at the Georgia Dome last month are now the 6-6 Saints' only motivating factors for Sunday's tilt. While New Orleans appears headed for an early end to its 2008 campaign, the Falcons continue to open eyes with their amazing turnaround under rookie head coach Mike Smith. Just one year removed from a calamitous four-win season, Atlanta has emerged as a serious playoff contender by winning four of its last five games to improve to 8-4 entering the December stretch run. The Falcons solidified their standing with a 22-16 road decision over dysfunctional San Diego in Week 13. First-year quarterback Matt Ryan strengthened his case for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors by throwing two touchdown passes in a turnover-free display, while a rapidly improving defense limited the Chargers to 201 total yards and smothered former league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson at the line of scrimmage. The win gives the youthful Falcons a jolt of confidence as they begin a challenging three-game stretch that will likely determine the team's postseason fate. After facing the Saints' league-leading offense on Sunday, Atlanta will host NFC South co-leader Tampa Bay in Week 15 before a road test against current NFC North front-runner Minnesota. Standing in the Falcons' way this week will be a New Orleans squad that has won four of its five outings at the Superdome this season and is averaging better than 33 points per game at home. The Saints also boast one of the NFL's most deadly quarterbacks in Drew Brees, who's closing in on a third straight year with over 4,000 passing yards and piled up a season-best 422 yards through the air against Atlanta in November, although he was intercepted three times in the loss. Brees will have to shake off one of his worst days of the year, however. The standout signal-caller also threw three picks in last week's costly setback to the Buccaneers, two of which came in the game's final 2 1/2 minutes, and finished with a season-low 60.2 passer rating. SERIES HISTORY Atlanta leads the all-time regular season series with New Orleans, 44-34, including a 34-20 win when the teams met at the Georgia Dome in Week 10. The Saints swept home-and-homes against their NFC South rival in both 2006 and 2007, including a 22-16 home win in Week 7 of last season. The Falcons are 0-2 in series road games since beating New Orleans in San Antonio in 2005, and are 0-4 in New Orleans since last winning there in 2002. In addition to the regular season series, the teams have faced off once in the postseason, with Atlanta winning a 27-20 road affair in a 1991 NFC First-Round Playoff. Saints head coach Sean Payton is 4-1 against the Falcons as a head coach, while Smith is 1-0 against both Payton and the Saints as a head coach. WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL Atlanta's offensive game plan hasn't changed since the season's outset, as the coaching staff has put its faith in powerful running back Michael Turner (1208 rushing yards, 13 TD, 4 receptions) and an unheralded offensive line that consistently controls the line of scrimmage. The results have been hard to argue with, since the Falcons boast the NFL's second-best ground attack (150.7 ypg) and have worn down the opposition game after game. Turner, the league's leader in carries and rushing touchdowns, backed up a 117-yard, four-score effort against rival Carolina in Week 12 with 121 yards on a career-best 31 attempts to key last Sunday's win over San Diego. Atlanta is 6-0 when the offseason acquisition eclipses the century mark this season. Backup Jerious Norwood (412 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 3 total TD) is a highly-dangerous open-field runner, as the Saints found out when the speedster took a short Ryan pass 67 yards for a touchdown in the teams' earlier meeting. New Orleans only ranks 19th overall in rushing defense (114.0 ypg), but the team did a decent job of keeping Turner in check last month. Atlanta's offensive centerpiece had 96 yards and a touchdown in that game, but needed 27 carries to do so. Standout middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (94 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and strongside starter Scott Fujita (55 tackles, 1 INT), who racked up 12 tackles (11 solo) against the Falcons in November, have the tough task of containing Atlanta's devastating running game, and athletic strong safety Roman Harper (62 tackles, 8 PD) will likely spend plenty of time in the box as well come Sunday. The Saints have had greater troubles in stopping the pass, as a rash of injuries at the cornerback position and a spotty rush up front have allowed opponents to average 224.3 yards per game through the air along with 19 touchdown throws. It doesn't help matters that starting end Will Smith (46 tackles, 3 sacks) begins a four-game suspension for testing positive for a banned diuretic on Sunday. Seldom-used Jeff Charleston (11 tackles, 2 sacks) figures to draw the start in the vacated spot opposite Bobby McCray (22 tackles, 6 sacks), who's coming off a two-sack effort against Tampa Bay. Regular free safety Kevin Kaesviharn (64 tackles, 2 sacks) will also be sidelined due to a shoulder stinger, although replacement Josh Bullocks (14 tackles) does have plenty of previous starting experience. Ryan (2625 passing yards, 13 TD, 6 INT) had a most-impressive debut in his first taste of this series, as the 23-year-old completed 16-of-23 passes for 248 yards and no interceptions in the Week 10 triumph over the Saints, while connecting on touchdown strikes to Norwood and game-breaking receiver Roddy White. Such displays have been par for the course for the rookie sensation, who's thrown picks in just four of the first 12 games and shown the poise and knowledge of a 10-year vet. White (68 receptions, 1085 yards, 6 TD) has six 100-yard performances already this year as Ryan's unquestioned go-to guy and could be headed to his first career Pro Bowl, while fellow wideout Michael Jenkins (34 receptions, 3 TD) is valued as much for his blocking skills as his pass-catching talents. The front wall has supplied terrific protection all year long, as Ryan has only been sacked 13 times for the season. WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL New Orleans' multi-faceted aerial onslaught can strike fear in the hearts of enemy defenses, as Brees (3870 passing yards, 24 TD, 14 INT) has a wealth of talented options at his disposal and a line that excels in keeping him upright. The exceptionally-accurate triggerman has been nearly unstoppable at the Superdome this season and is on pace to break Dan Marino's 24-year-old NFL record of 5,084 yards in a single year. An enviable corps of receivers is led by matchup problem Marques Colston (22 receptions, 1 TD), who burned the Falcons for season-highs of seven catches and 140 yards in the previous meeting, and emerging star Lance Moore (59 receptions, 8 TD), who's hauled in a touchdown pass in five straight games. Ex-Giants bad boy Jeremy Shockey (39 receptions) is a four-time Pro Bowl selection at tight end, while the healthy return of star running back Reggie Bush (47 receptions, 3 TD) creates yet another potential headache for Atlanta's stop unit. The former Heisman Trophy winner sat out last month's clash between these teams while recovering from knee surgery and was used sparingly a week ago in his first game back from the injury. Although the Falcons' secondary lacks any headliners and was throttled for 416 net passing yards by Brees back in November, the group did come up with three key interceptions that afternoon, one of which was returned 95 yards for a game-sealing touchdown by rookie nickel back Chevis Jackson (21 tackles, 1 INT). The defense was stout in last weekend's big win at San Diego, however, holding the Chargers to only 131 passing yards and allowing quarterback Philip Rivers to complete just 17 of his 30 throws. Atlanta also took down Rivers three times, with tackle Jonathan Babineaux (27 tackles, 3.5 sacks) accounting for 1 1/2 sacks in the game. That was a very positive sign, since the Falcons have had trouble coming up with a reliable complement to pass-rushing terror John Abraham (29 tackles, 3 forced fumbles), who stands second in the NFC with 12 1/2 sacks despite playing through a lingering neck problem. Even more encouraging than Babineaux's breakthrough was Atlanta's stuffing of the run last Sunday, one of the team's sore spots for much of this season. Tomlinson mustered a subpar 24 yards on 14 carries against a Falcons' defense that ranks 21st in the league against the rush (116.7 ypg) and is yielding a suspect 4.8 yards per attempt. The team received some welcome news on Tuesday, when the NFL announced a delay in its decision regarding massive tackle Grady Jackson's (19 tackles, 1 sack) appeal of a potential suspension for testing positive for the same substance that earned New Orleans' Will Smith and Deuce McAllister four-game banishments. The 35-year-old lane-clogger teams with solid rookie Curtis Lofton (73 tackles, 1 sack) and veteran strong safety Lawyer Milloy (69 tackles, 1 INT) to give Atlanta some resistance up the middle. Don't count on the pass-happy Saints challenging the Falcons too many times with a running game that's averaging a meager 88.3 yards per week (28th overall). Second-year pro Pierre Thomas (359 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 7 total TD) is in line to receive the lion's share of carries on Sunday with McAllister (317 rushing yards, 12 receptions, 5 total TD) unavailable, with Bush (294 rushing yards, 2 TD) to be sprinkled in some as well. The backfield would get a boost if fullback Mike Karney (7 receptions, 2 TD) is able to reprise his role as the lead blocker this week after missing the last three games with a sprained MCL. FANTASY FOCUS With the majority of fantasy leagues starting their playoffs this week, those with offensive players on both teams can thank the schedule-makers for a game that has great potential to be a shootout. New Orleans' Brees and Atlanta's Turner are two of the best at their positions, so it goes without saying that both should be in lineups. There's also a trio of starting-worthy receivers in the Saints' duo of Colston and Moore and the Falcons' ultra-consistent White, while Shockey's production has risen in recent weeks and should be a solid play at tight end. Thomas, who's scored three touchdowns over the last three games, has become the New Orleans running back to own, with Bush a reasonable but shaky choice as a flex play while he works his way back from injury. Same goes for Norwood, whose touches have been curtailed some down the stretch because he's been dealing with bruised ribs. One could do worse than Ryan this week, especially in a tasty matchup with a pedestrian New Orleans secondary. Look elsewhere if you're in need of a team defense for the postseason. OVERALL ANALYSIS The outcome of this divisional tilt could hinge on the Saints' mindset going into this game. If New Orleans comes out motivated without much on the line at this point, this is a team fully capable of putting a wrench into the Falcons' playoff plans. The Saints usually play inspired ball in front of their home fans and have yet to show they're ready to throw in the towel, so the thought here is they'll be ready for an Atlanta team that got their attention with last month's victory in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons are clearly the steadier team of these two NFC South foes, but still don't have quite the firepower to match New Orleans when Brees and his arsenal weapons are in sync. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Saints 27, Falcons 23
Copyright 2008 Courtesy of The Sports Network.













