NFL Preview - Cincinnati (1-10-1) At Indianapolis (8-4)
POSTED: 5:08 pm EST December 4,
2008
By Shawn Clarke, Contributing NFL Editor -- (Sports Network) - After having a November to remember, the playoff-hopeful Indianapolis Colts will try to break in a new month on a winning note this Sunday versus the woeful Cincinnati Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts erased a horrible beginning to the season with five straight wins in November and improved to 8-4 on the season with an uncharacteristic 10-6 win at Cleveland this past weekend. Held without an offensive touchdown for the first time since September of the 2003 campaign, Indianapolis got the go-ahead points on a 37-yard fumble return by defensive end Robert Mathis. Indianapolis had to rely on its defense against the Browns with eight-time Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning and the rest of the offense ineffective. Indy's stop unit allowed a season-low 193 yards to the Browns and has yielded 17.6 points per contest during the five-game winning streak. It was surprising to see such a strong defensive effort, since reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders missed his third straight outing with a right knee injury and middle linebacker Gary Brackett went down during the game with a broken bone in his leg. Brackett is expected to miss at least two weeks and Sanders is listed as questionable versus the Bengals. The Colts, whose run of five straight AFC South titles will likely come to an end this year, are trying to clinch a playoff spot for the seventh straight season since head coach Tony Dungy took over in 2002. Dungy will have his team ready for anything, including a surprise performance from the Bengals. Indy is ahead in the Wild Card hunt and has a favorable schedule the next three weeks, with Cincinnati, Detroit and Jacksonville on the docket. The Colts will then close out the regular-season schedule versus current AFC leader Tennessee. Cincinnati probably can't wait to get this season over with, as it sits last in the AFC North with a 1-10-1 record, the worst in the conference. The Bengals have lost two in a row since a rare 13-13 tie against Philadelphia and has Indianapolis, Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City on the remaining slate. Baltimore clobbered the Bengals, 34-3, last Sunday to send them to a 1-8 record in the conference this season. Led by backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has started eight straight games in place of injured Pro Bowl signal-caller Carson Palmer, Cincinnati, which opened the 2008 campaign with eight straight losses, will try for its first road win of the season (0-6) this weekend. Fitzpatrick has six touchdown passes, seven interceptions and eight fumbles this season. Injuries have taken their toll on the Bengals, with a franchise-record 21 players on injured reserve. They have played well at times this year under those circumstances, including close losses to the Cowboys, Giants and Jets. Head coach Marvin Lewis will have his team prepared to spike Indy's playoff punch, which would perhaps keep his job secure for now. He vowed this week that this team will never go through a season like this again. Now is the time to prove it, because riding a losing streak into the offseason does not historically bode well for teams trying to turn things around. SERIES HISTORY Indianapolis has a 14-8 lead in its all-time regular season series with Cincinnati, and extended its win streak in the series to five with a 34-16 home win when the teams last met, in 2006. The Bengals' most recent win in the series took place in Indy in 1997. In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met once in the postseason, with the then-Baltimore Colts securing a 17-0 win at Memorial Stadium in a 1970 AFC Divisional Playoff. Dungy is 5-0 against the Bengals in his career, including 2-0 while with the Buccaneers from 1996 through 2001. Lewis is 0-2 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach. WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL Fitzpatrick (1,342 passing yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) will run the show again with Palmer to miss his ninth game of the season because of a right elbow injury suffered on September 21 against the New York Giants. Fitzpatrick didn't have much last week against Baltimore and was sacked three times. He threw for only 124 yards on 12-of-31 passing with no touchdowns or interceptions for the Bengals, who registered just six first downs to match a franchise record for fewest in a game. Cincinnati also had only 155 total yards, its second-lowest output of the season, and punted 11 of the first 12 times it had the ball. Fitzpatrick may have left tackle Levi Jones back on the field on Sunday after missing the last two games with a variety of injuries. Despite having one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL, the Bengals are deep on talent at wide receiver with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson. Houshmandzadeh (81 receptions, 810 yards, 4 TD) leads the team in catches and yards, and finished with 64 on four receptions versus the Ravens. Johnson (45 receptions, 4 TD) may be on his way out of Cincinnati and has been a distraction this team does not need. He has caught a pass in 103 consecutive games, though. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney (21 tackles, 8 sacks) will try to apply the pressure on Fitzpatrick. Freeney owns five sacks in the past four games and tied a career-high with three in the Colts' most recent meeting with the Bengals in 2006. Mathis (41 tackles, 8.5 sacks) leads the team in sacks and recovered a fumble last week and returned it 37 yards for a score. He has recorded 3 1/2 sacks in his last two contests. The Colts are sixth in the league against the pass this season, allowing 188.3 yards through the air per game. Indy is expected to be without defensive tackle Keyunta Dawson (40 tackles), who went down against the Browns with a hamstring injury. Safety Sanders (28 tackles, 1 INT) has missed three straight games, but could return to the starting lineup on Sunday. He did not practice this week and will most likely be a game-time decision. Melvin Bullitt (61 tackles, 4 INT) has filled in nicely in Sanders' spot and leads the Colts in interceptions. Cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden (27 tackles, 1 INT) and Tim Jennings (51 tackles, 2 INT) and safety Antoine Bethea (82 tackles, 2 INT) will be responsible for Houshmandzadeh and Johnson. Chicago castoff and running back Cedric Benson (335 rushing yards, 1 TD) has provided depth for Cincinnati while former starter Chris Perry has struggled. Benson has faced tough run defenses over the last three weeks (Ravens, Steelers, Eagles) and posted just 17 yards on 10 carries last week. He hasn't scored since his best output of the season against Jacksonville in Week 9, when Benson tallied 104 yards and a score on 24 carries in the Bengals' only win of the season. He has a chance for another good outing this week against Indy's mediocre run defense. The Bengals are 31st in the NFL in rushing, posting just 78.1 yards per game, and even had Fitzpatrick lead the team in that category on three occasions this season. If the Bengals run the ball successfully, Indianapolis will be in trouble, since it is only 25th in defending opposing ground attacks. Cleveland managed 101 rushing yards a week ago, with Jamal Lewis pounding his way to 77 yards on 24 carries. Leading tackler Brackett (100 tackles) will be out for some time after suffering a broken bone in his leg and will most likely be replaced by second-year pro Buster Davis, according to Dungy. Dungy also noted that if Davis has any problem, Freddy Keiaho (85 tackles) will take over. Keiaho started at outside linebacker the first 12 games of the season and played the middle on Sunday after Brackett left the game. WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL Manning (2,948 passing yards, 19 TD, 12 INT) is coming off one of the worst outings of his career after he passed for a season-low 125 yards with a pair of interceptions versus Cleveland. Manning was lucky the defense bailed him out, although he has been impressive during Indy's five-game winning streak, having thrown for 1,194 yards with nine touchdown passes and three interceptions for a 94.5 passer rating. Manning has completed 66.1 percent of his passes during the current streak as well. He will lead the league's seven- ranked passing offense against a Bengals team he has enjoyed success against. Manning is 5-0 versus Cincinnati and amassed 14 touchdown passes and just three picks for a sizzling 109.2 quarterback rating over those games. The Colts' top two wideouts, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, will challenge an injury-riddled Cincinnati defensive backfield on Sunday. Wayne (62 receptions, 870 yards, 5 TD) caught four passes for 46 yards last week and Harrison (48 receptions, 4 TD) added 27 yards on three receptions. Slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez (48 receptions, 3 TD) and tight end Dallas Clark (47 receptions, 3 TD) will contribute on Sunday as well for the Colts, who have one of the best red-zone offenses in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 23-of-34 possessions inside the 20-yard line. Cincinnati's defense is ranked 23rd in the red zone, allowing touchdowns 23 times over 39 possessions. There is no doubt Manning will try to pick apart Cincinnati's depleted secondary on Sunday. Bengals safety Marvin White (68 tackles, 1 INT, who is third on the team in tackles, is the latest defensive player to land on injured reserve after he tore two knee ligaments against the Ravens. Safety Chinedum Ndukwe (52 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is still nursing a knee injury and cornerback David Jones (36 tackles) also didn't play last week because of the same problem. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has had his hands full this season and may have to use safeties Kyries Hebert (19 tackles) or John Busing (2 tackles) on Sunday. Cornerbacks Jamar Fletcher (12 tackles) and Simeon Castille (6 tackles) will see action Sunday and draw tough matchups from Wayne, Harrison, Gonzalez and Clark. Free safety Chris Crocker (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and cornerback Leon Hall (52 tackles) also will be tested often by Manning after Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco passed for 280 yards and two scores on Cincinnati last Sunday. Colts running back Joseph Addai (514 rushing yards, 5 TD) is not having a record-breaking campaign and is coming off two subpar outings. In his last two contests, Addai has recorded 70 yards and 57 yards, respectively, but both came during wins. His best outing of the season was back in Week 11 versus the Houston Texans, when he finished with 105 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Addai hasn't played well against weaker defenses, either, and may struggle again this week versus a Bengals team that has nothing to play for besides spoiling teams on the playoff bubble. Center Jeff Saturday (calf) may be back in the Indianapolis lineup this week to help pave lanes for the ground game, although he missed practice early this week, while offensive tackle Tony Ugoh is battling a leg problem. Rookie center Jamey Richard started in place of Saturday this past week. Backup running back Dominic Rhodes (394 rushing yards, 3 TD) needs 31 yards to eclipse the 3,000-yard rushing barrier for his career. Cincinnati allowed 147 rushing yards to the Ravens and is rated 24th against the run this season, permitting 131.6 yards per game. In order to prevent Manning from picking apart the defense, the Bengals must apply constant pressure on the future Hall of Famer. Cincinnati had two sacks last week, but is still near the bottom in that category, due to the fact it has no presence up front. Defensive tackles Domata Peko (50 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and John Thornton (23 tackles, 1 sack) each posted a pair of stops against Baltimore and will try to collapse the pocket on Manning. Those two are mainly responsible for plugging the running lanes for Addai, who will then meet a talented linebacker corps led by Dhani Jones, who (86 tackles, 1 INT) plays the middle and leads the team in tackles. Weakside linebacker Brandon Johnson (59 tackles, 1.5, 1 INT) recorded a game-high 13 stops last week. Expect to see Jones, Johnson and strongside linebacker Rashad Jeanty (81 tackles) flying around the ball at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Ravens produced 451 total yards on Sunday, the most against Cincinnati this season. FANTASY FOCUS The Bengals have two fantasy options as most leagues enter the postseason. Benson and Houshmandzadeh are expected to have decent outings on Sunday, with Benson facing the Colts' subpar run defense. He must take advantage of Brackett and Dawson not in the lineup. Houshmandzadeh has emerged as the go-to wideout in Cincinnati as Chad Johnson continues to tarnish his tenure with the club. Give the latter a shot if you're desperate for a receiver. The Colts have a plethora of fantasy talent to pick from this week, starting with Manning. He is facing a depleted Cincinnati secondary, which will have trouble against Wayne and three other pass-catchers in Harrison, Gonzalez and Clark. Addai is the other fantasy starter for Indianapolis and is due for his second 100-yard rushing game this season. OVERALL ANALYSIS The Colts will struggle a bit early on against the Bengals before Manning figures out how to dissect the opposing defensive backfield. Indianapolis must not look past the Bengals, who have totaled a league-low 151 points this season, in order to keep its Wild Card status intact and extend the team's current winning streak to six games. Addai will have his 2007 form on display in front of the home crowd, while the banged-up Colts defense will get a big lift from its reserves for a big victory in downtown Indianapolis. The Colts also have the luxury of playing three of its last four games at home. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 36, Bengals 24
Copyright 2008 Courtesy of The Sports Network.













