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NFL Preview - Houston (5-7) At Green Bay (5-7)

POSTED: 1:57 pm EST December 4, 2008

(Sports Network) - With their backs pinned firmly against the wall in the NFC North race, the Green Bay Packers must do something that has been part of the franchise's M.O. for decades - defending Lambeau Field in the month of December.

The Houston Texans will be the opponent for Green Bay on Sunday, and will be attempting to extend the misery for a Packers club that has gone 1-4 over its past five games to fall two games back of the first-place Vikings in the NFC North.

The Packers have exhibited particularly poor play over the past two weeks, allowing a total of 86 points in back-to-back losses to the Saints (51-29) and Panthers (35-31). The defeats have coincided with a pair of victories for Minnesota, but the uncertainty on the Vikings roster following this week's string of suspensions seems to leave the division as something of a wide open affair.

Green Bay can inject itself back into the heart of the race with a strong December, but a loss on Sunday would figure to all but eliminate Mike McCarthy's team from contention.

Following the Texans tilt, the Pack will travel to Jacksonville (4-8) and arch rival Chicago (6-6) before finishing up at home against currently winless Detroit (0-12).

Houston, meanwhile, comes into Lambeau sporting the same record as its competitor, but not its standing in the postseason hunt.

The Texans have long been out of an AFC South race commanded by first-place Tennessee (11-1), and would need four more wins plus a great deal of help around the league in order to reach its first postseason as a Wild Card entry.

That said, Gary Kubiak and company do come off perhaps their most encouraging performance of the year, a 30-17 beat-down of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night.

Texans running back Steve Slaton rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns to continue a scintillating rookie season, and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts.

Houston quarterback Sage Rosenfels presided over his second win in five starts this season, but will not be in the lineup this week to try to acquire a third.

Matt Schaub will return this week from a four-game absence that followed a knee injury suffered in a 28-21 loss to the Vikings on Nov. 2nd. In that game, Schaub sprained his left MCL on a low hit from Minnesota end Jared Allen, a hit that drew a $50,000 fine for the Pro Bowl defensive end.

Schaub and Houston continue to hold out hope for the franchise's first winning season in its seven-year history, but will need to win their final four contests in order to achieve it.

SERIES HISTORY

The Packers won the only meeting with the Texans all-time, scoring a 16-13 victory when they visited Reliant Stadium in 2004. A Houston-based franchise has not traveled to Green Bay since the Oilers dealt the Packers a 31-3 setback at Lambeau Field in 1986.

The Texans' Kubiak and Packers' McCarthy will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective team, for the first time as head coaches.

WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

The big story for the Texans this week will be the return of Schaub (1762 passing yards, 10 TD, 8 INT), who had Houston in the midst of a mini-winning run before becoming injured on Nov. 2nd. The ex-Falcon and Virginia product has a solid 91.0 passer rating on the year, and will try to regain the form he displayed before going down. Schaub will work with one of the underrated receiving corps in the league, one that includes near-certain Pro Bowler Andre Johnson (88 receptions, 4 TD) on one side, red-zone vulture Kevin Walter (49 receptions, 7 TD) on the other, and trusty tight end Owen Daniels (50 receptions, 2 TD) across the middle of the field. Johnson, the NFL leader in both receptions and receiving yards, finished with seven catches for 75 yards and a score against Jacksonville on Monday. Were it not for him, the Texans' offensive MVP would undoubtedly be NFL Rookie of the Year candidate Steve Slaton (904 rushing yards, 34 receptions, 9 TD), whose strong rookie season has included two 100-yard games in his past three appearances. Slaton is averaging a healthy 5.0 yards per carry as Week 14 begins. An important charge for the Houston o-line on Sunday will be protecting the less-than-mobile Schaub, who has been sacked 16 times in his seven appearances this year.

The Green Bay defense has gone through a dismal two-game stretch in its recent losses to the Saints and Panthers, and will have to keep the Texans' offensive stars in check if it wishes to reclaim a spot in the win column on Sunday. The biggest pressure will be on a recently-maligned secondary, with cornerbacks Al Harris (9 tackles) and Tramon Williams (42 tackles, 4 INT) likely to be matched on Johnson and Walter, and recently converted safety Charles Woodson (42 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) along with Nick Collins (55 tackles, 5 INT) attempting to lend some help over the top. Carolina receiver Steve Smith torched the Packers secondary for four catches and 105 yards in the second half of last week's contest. A sporadic Green Bay pass rush has not helped the secondary much, though top end Aaron Kampman (44 tackles, 9.5 sacks) did have two sacks of Jake Delhomme last week. Prior to the recent crumbling of the secondary, the biggest problem for the Packers defense had been a run-stopping group that was being routinely gashed. The team is currently 27th in the league against the run (141.7 yards per game), 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.8), and comes off a week in which Carolina running back DeAngelo Williams scored four rushing touchdowns against them. Middle linebacker A.J. Hawk (63 tackles, 2 sacks), who had a team-best nine tackles last Sunday, will be among those trying to prevent Slaton from having a similar display this week.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Aaron Rodgers' (2897 passing yards, 20 TD, 10 INT) first season at the helm of the Packers offense has not included nearly enough victories to satisfy Green Bay fans, though Rodgers' passing numbers are difficult to dismiss. The quarterback has posted strong numbers in both passer rating (91.2) and completion percentage (63.36, has thrown two or more touchdowns in seven of 12 starts, and is among the league leaders in touchdown passes heading into Sunday's contest. Rodgers' transition has certainly been made easier by the presence of wideouts Greg Jennings (64 receptions, 7 TD) and Donald Driver (54 receptions, 4 TD), both of whom had solid outings in last week's loss to the Panthers. Jennings had eight catches for 91 yards and a touchdown in the defeat, while Driver went for 83 yards and a score on five grabs. Tight end Donald Lee (34 receptions, 4 TD) also had a touchdown reception in the win. The Packer running game could take on a different look this week, as Ryan Grant (876 rushing yards, 3 TD) was limited to 12 carries for 39 yards due to a thumb injury last week, and backup Brandon Jackson (242 rushing yards, 1 TD, 27 receptions) made the most of his opportunity with 80 rushing yards on just 11 totes. The Packers are 12th in the league in total offense (340.3 yards per game) as Week 14 commences.

If the Texans wish to make a leap forward in 2009, they will have to address the deficiencies of a defense that currently ranks 21st overall (338.4 yards per game), 23rd against the run (128.8 yards per game) and tied for 26th in sacks along with Green Bay (20). Defending the dangerous Green Bay receivers will be job number one for Houston on Sunday, with cornerbacks Dunta Robinson (25 tackles, 1 INT) and Jacques Reeves (40 tackles, 4 INT) among those trying to keep Jennings and Driver in check. Reeves had six tackles and an interception against the Jaguars last week. Safeties Eugene Wilson (37 tackles, 2 INT) and Nick Ferguson (47 tackles) had eight tackles each in the win. The pass rush has been almost solely the domain of former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams (41 tackles), who notched three sacks of David Garrard last week to boost his total to 11 on the year. When the Packers run it, tackle Amobi Okoye (14 tackles) and linebackers DeMeco Ryans (85 tackles) and Xavier Adibi (27 tackles) will carry primary responsibility in slowing down that rush. Houston allowed Jacksonville rushers Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones- Drew to combine for 116 yards on 21 total carries last Monday.

FANTASY FOCUS

Slaton was at best a late-round fantasy pick in league Drafts, but he has become a vital starter for all that retain his services. Though he's had some rib problems and will be operating on a short week, he's a good start against a soft Green Bay run-stuffing unit. Andre Johnson is also a must-start, and tight end Daniels was quiet against the Jaguars but generally adds value. Schaub is not a good start, since he's bound to show some rust. Kicker Kris Brown is worth using, even at potentially frigid Lambeau Field, but the Texans defense is not.

Rodgers and his comrades in the passing game - Jennings, Driver, and Lee - have all been decent starters this year, and the Texans secondary isn't dominant enough to hold any of the above below their normal totals. You'll have to monitor the injury status of Grant, however, and you might take a flier on Jackson if it looks like Grant won't go. Kicker Mason Crosby is a viable fantasy starter, and though the Green Bay defense has given up a lot of points in recent weeks, it might have a bounce-back day against a rusty QB who can be pressured.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Texans looked like a first-rate football team on Monday night, when they played their best game of the year and outclassed the Jaguars before a captive TV audience. Six days later, in a much more difficult setting, don't look for the team to look quite as crisp. Schaub could have some problems after being on the shelf for so many weeks, and figures to make some mistakes before he re-adjusts to game speed. Meanwhile, Green Bay finds itself in panic mode, and the desperation the team faces should serve it well within the friendly confines of Lambeau. Look for Houston to hang around for three quarters before a superior Green Bay club flexes its muscles and earns a must-win.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Packers 28, Texans 21


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